MLB Prospect Watch

Blogs Track Teams - 5/30/12

• Alen Hanson went 3-for-4 with a home run, notes Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com, who breaks down the Buccos organization.
• TalkingChop.com briefs us on the Braves system, including a rough outing by David Filak.
• PineTarPress.com recaps the Royals organization, including a monster day at the plate for Jorge Bonifacio.
• Mike Mahtook went 3-for-5 and Josh Sale homered, writes RaysProspects.com, who runs through the Rays organization.
• Max Stassi knocked two doubles, says AthleticsFarm.com, who has all of the A's action, including a below-average start for Dan Straily.
• Jedd Gyorko hit his fifth home run since being promoted to Triple-A, writes Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune, who has all of the Padres prospect results.
• Joe Kelly continues to have good starts, despite not striking out a lot of batters, notes FutureRedBirds.net, who catches us up on the Cardinals farm system.
• Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com runs through the Reds system, including a strong start for Kyle Lotzkar.

 

Prospect Action - 5/29/12

Triple-A

• Matt Harvey earned his fifth win of the year, allowing just one run in six innings, according to The Columbus Dispatch, but the outing was yet another example of the Mets top prospect not being ready for the majors, as he walked four batters during the outing.  
• Pirates lefty Rudy Owens earned his third win of the season on Tuesday, striking out seven in 6 2/3 innings, and outdueling Rays prospect Chris Archer, who fanned eight batters of his own in the loss, writes Nancy Zinni of PiratesProspects.com.
• Andrew Carraway got hit hard, as the Mariners prospect gave up seven runs in five innings in his fourth Triple-A start, notes Mike Curto of The [Tacoma] News Tribune.

Double-A

• Kyle Skipworth continued his hot hitting with a single and a double on Tuesday, giving him hits in four straight games and raising his batting average to .215, notes The Florida Times-Union.  It's not enough to get too excited about, considering Skipworth is repeating Double-A this season, but the Marlins will take any positive signs surrounding their former first-round pick who has struggled to this point in his professional career.
• Jared Mitchell homered, says Dennis Lin of The Birmingham News, the fourth of the season for the resurgent White Sox former first-rounder.

High-A

• Jimmy Nelson evened his record at 4-4 on the season, as the Brewers prospect struck out five over six innings while allowing just one run.
• Billy Hamilton stole two more bases in support of Reds teammate Tony Cingrani, who earned his fifth win of the season, giving up just one run in 5 1/3 inning, which brought his season ERA up to 1.11.

Low-A

• Mike Foltynewicz gave up just one run over seven innings, and got run support from fellow Astros prospect Delino DeShields, Jr., who homered in the game, reports The Lexingotn Herald-Ledger.  But Foltynewicz was outpitched by Giants prospect Clayton Blackburn, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and struck out nine.
• The Marlins continue to use Austin Brice and Jose Urina in a tandom this season, but the set-up appears to be working for now, as the duo struck out 14 batters on Tuesday, says Danny WIld of MiLB.com.
• Zach Cone blasted a triple and a homer to help his Rangers teammates to a 9-0 victory, according to The Hickory Daily Record.  He even drew a walk, something which has been an issue for the 2011 first-rounder since becoming a professional.

 

Prospect Action - 5/28/12

Triple-A

• Trevor Bauer fanned eight batters, facing a lineup that included a number of rehabbing major leaguers, but the Diamondbacks top prospect also walked four batters and battled his own command, says Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.
• Wil Myers continued his hot hitting, as the Royals prospect went 3-for-4 with two RBI's, notes Ryan Jones of The New Orleans Times-Picayune.
• The Pirates prospects in Triple-A Indianapolis went on a home run barrage on Monday, including a bomb by Starling Marte, writes Nancy Zinni of PiratesProspects.com.

Double-A

• White Sox pitching prospect Simon Castro allowed just an unearned run over eight innings, writes Dennis Lin of The Birmingham News.
• Oliver Drake tossed a gem on Monday, as the Orioles prospect threw six shutout innings, allowing just one hit, says Jordan Tuwiner of Orioles-Nation.com.
• Zeke Spruill tossed six shutout innings of his own, as the Braves prospect lowered his ERA to 3.50 on the season, reports Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.

High-A

• Cody Buckel tossed six shutout innings after the Rangers prospect apparently picked up a new pitch from Trevor Bauer, reports David Heck of MiLB.com.  Facing off against Buckel was Nationals prospect Robbie Ray, who was effective, allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings, but struck out just two batters, according to Luke Erickson of NationalsProspects.com, who adds that Ray has yet to fan a left-handed hitter this season.
• Billy Hamilton continues to run wild, as the Reds prospect stole three more bases, giving him 52 on the season, says Danny Wild of MiLB.com.

Low-A

• Rays prospect Jake Hager drove in five runs with a double and a triple, notes Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com.
• Parker Bridwell failed to make it out of the fourth inning, allowing two earned runs, notes Tuwiner.
• Angels prospects Jean Segura and Kaleb Cowart both recorded four-hit days, says Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.
• Steven Moya blasted a home run, the third in two days for the Tigers prospect, says Dean Holzwarth of MLive.com.

 

Prospect Action - 5/24/12

Triple-A

• Chris Archer earned his fifth loss of the season despite 12 strikeouts from the Rays top prospect, writes Danny Wild of MiLB.com.
• Mets top prospect Matt Harvey picked up his fifth win of the season, allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings while striking out just two.
• A.J. Griffin didn't get much help from his fellow A's prospects behind him, as he allowed five runs in six innings, only two of which were earned.

Double-A

• Jenrry Mejia gave up home runs to Twins prospects Matt Rizzotti and Deibinson Romero, reports the Hartford Courant.
• Jonathan Singleton went 4-for-5 with a home run, says David Heck of MiLB.com.
• Jared Mitchell got the best of Tyler Thornburg, homering off the Brewers pitching prospect, but it wasn't enough run support for his fellow White Sox prospect Nestor Molina, who earned his fourth loss of the season after giving up four runs in six innings.  Thornburg moved to 6-0 on the season, allowing just two runs over 6 1/3 innings and lowering his ERA to 2.28 for the season.

High-A

• Matt Barnes allowed just one run in six innings, but the Red Sox prospect earned his first Carolina League loss.

Low-A

• Mike Foltynewicz had a start that was not indicative of his ERA on Thursday, as the Astros prospect allowed seven runs in six innings, says Paul Fogleman of The Hickory Daily Record.
• Tyler Austin went 4-for-7 in the Charleston Yankees 13-inning game on Thursday, notes David Heck of MiLB.com.

 

BABIP Beneficiaries

It's early in the season, so statistical anomalies are everywhere.  One of the biggest ones come among those prospects who are off to hot starts, especially with the batting average, and many of these players are getting the help of extra balls in play falling in.

It doesn't mean they are going to come crashing back to earth, but it is important to understand that certain things are unsustainable.  For example, last year, Cardinals outfield prospect Oscar Taveras batted .386 in the Midwest League, thanks in large part to his tremendous hitting ability, but also largely due to his .440 BABIP, a mark that is over 100 points higher than average.  Even with a more realistic BABIP, Taveras would have had a great season, but he's obviously not a .386 hitter.  No one is.

So before we get all jacked up about prospects off to red-hot starts this season, let's see which ones are getting the kind of help they shouldn't count on for the rest of the season.

• The Royals like what they have in Jorge Bonifacio, and pushed the young outfielder to the Midwest League at age 19, but he's not going to sustain the .393 BABIP that has helped him hit .320/.390/.446 so far this season.  He's hitting more line drives than average, and did so last season as well, so his normal BABIP could be higher than average, but it's no where near this high.
• Ryan Brett is a personal favorite of mine, and is establishing himself as a nice second base prospect for the Rays, but .373 BABIP, thanks in large part to a groundball rate that's 10 percent higher than his league average and 15 percent higher than his rate last year have helped contribute to that.  He'll have to continue to pound the ball on the ground to keep this up, which may help explain why his slugging percentage has dropped 62 points this season.
• The Yankees sent Gary Sanchez back in the South Atlantic League for the second straight season, and it's easy to make the claim that he's figured the league out (it happens!), but it needs to be noted that much of his .309/.360/.443 line can be attributed to his .410 BABIP.  That's unsustainable, of course, but Sanchez his hitting line drives in 25 percent of his balls in play, up from 13 percent last year, meaning he's barrelling up the ball almost twice as often this season.  It won't keep his BABIP over .400, but it does mean he's been hitting the ball better and not just getting lucky.
• Fellow Sally Leaguers Alen Hanson and Brent Keys are both having breakout seasons, and both can give at least some of the credit to their .396 and .394 BABIP's respectively.  The Pirates and Marlins both like what their prospects have done, but neither should expect Hanson's fly balls to continue to leave the park at a 15 percent rate or Keys to keep hitting .382.
• Billy Beane is getting a lot of credit for the A's acquisition of Miles Head this off-season in return from the Red Sox as part of the package for closer Andrew Bailey, but Beane likely has much less to do with Head's .418 BABIP than does the ridiculously hitter-friendly California League.
• The Sox may be missing Head, but they are enjoying the play of Jackie Bradley, who's Carolina League-leading .368 batting average is being aided by his fifth-in-the-league .409 BABIP, this despite a below-average line drive rate and an above-average fly ball rate.
• When a player is hitting .411, his BABIP has to be unsustainably high, so don't expect Tigers 3B Nick Castellanos to keep up his ridiculous .482 BABIP, which is 84 points higher than the next highest player in the Florida State League.