Low-A ball is like the Noah's Ark of prospect land. It's filled with prospects of all shapes and sizes of prospects who have come from all different parts of the baseball world. But for all, it serves as the first real test of professional baseball.
Whether coming from rookie and short-season baseball in previous years, entering full-season ball straight out of high school, or making a brief stop out of college before heading up the ladder, the South Atlantic and Midwest Leagues offer a range of prospects varying from teenagers who barely speak English, to college grads with a degree in the subject.
Many prospects need a full season there, and some have already had one, but others are not long for the lowest levels of the bus leagues. Below, I took a look at prospects who are off to great starts and could be heading up to Advanced-A ball any week now.
This exercise is not as simple, however, as naming the players who are off to the best starts. For example, Twins 3B prospect Miguel Sano is off to a tremendous start in the Midwest League, hitting .279/.396/.607 with 11 homers in 39 games. He's even drawn more walks this season than he did in 66 games last season. But he just turned 19 last week, and he's still striking out at a tremendous rate, fanning 25.5 percent of the time he steps to the plate this season, a pace that will get exploited as he heads up the ranks. Given his young age, there's no need for the Twins to rush him, despite his raw numbers. While he could still see the Florida State League at some point this season, there's no need to make the move after just 165 plate appearances.
But these players are ready, and could get the call soon.
Gary Sanchez, Catcher (NYY)
Still just 19 and very raw, Sanchez is nonetheless in his second stint in the South Atlantic League. He held his own quite nicely as an 18-year-old last season, hitting .256/.335/.485 with 17 home runs. His plate discipline left something to be desired and hasn't improved this year, but Sanchez will never be a hitter that works the count terribly well, which is a product of his ability to barrel up more pitches than most hitters. Part of the decision to send him back likely had to do with the maturity issues that have surrounded him as well. This season, Sanchez is hitting even better, posting a line of .333/.380/.483, with just two homers so far, but already 12 doubles, just four short of his total last year in 52 fewer games. I can't speak to the maturity issues, but I'm also not suggesting a promotion to the Bronx. Unless Sanchez has been in trouble again this year, there are few things left for him to prove in Low-A ball.
Matt Skole, Third Base (WAS)
Polished college hitters aren't usually long for the Sally League, and Skole should be no different. After signing quickly as a 5th round pick and proving everything he could in the New York-Penn League last season, hitting .290/.382/.438, and more importantly controlling the strike zone well (42 walks to 52 strike outs), a case could have been made to jump Skole directly to the Carolina League. Instead, he headed to Hagerstown, where he's been even more patient at the plate, leading to a few too many strikeouts, but a ton of walks and a lot of good pitches to hit. In his first 35 games of full-season ball, he's hit .303/.456/.563 with eight home runs. With a wOBA of .458 that's good for third in the SAL, Skole clearly isn't being challenged in Low-A ball. His initial assignment there was likely due to the presence of 2011 first-rounder Anthony Rendon a level above him, but with Rendon out until September, Skole should be headed for the Potomac Nationals soon.
Dylan Bundy, Right-Handed Pitcher (BAL)
25 innings pitched. Four hits allowed. Zero earned runs. 36 strikeouts. Those are his professional numbers, not his high school numbers from last year. C'mon, challenge the guy.
Jose Fernandez, Right-Handed Pitcher (MIA)
I would only recommend promoting a prep pitcher in his first professional season after just eight starts for two reasons: one, he's dominating his current level at such an obscene level it's not doing him any good to be there (see Bundy, Dylan); or two, he's extremely physically mature and developed, and he's getting by on simply being bigger and stronger than his competition, which is the case of Fernandez. As I stated in my writeup of a recent start of his, Fernandez isn't built like your average 19-year-old. He's built like your dad, if your dad was in 6'3", in great shape, and threw 94 miles-per-hour in his sleep. This season, Fernandez is 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 47 innings. At this level, he really has no need for a third pitch, much in the same way dominant college starters get by with two pitches before becoming professionals. Fernandez is commanding his fastball and curveball well enough that there's no real risk in rushing him, and he will continue to have success with just those two pitches if the Marlins leave him where he is. If they want to force him to develop his changeup, he'll have to do it in the Florida State League.
Nick Tropeano, Right-Handed Pitcher (HOU)
The exact opposite of Fernandez, Tropeano is simply a smart, advanced pitcher picking on inexperienced hitters. Unlike a lot of Low-A pitchers who feature true heat and un-commanded breaking pitches, Tropeano has added velocity to creep over the 90-mph mark. What makes the former Stony Brook pitcher successful is his changeup, which he uses to toy with young hitters. Hitters at this level aren't used to seeing a secondary pitch commanded the way Tropeano does, and are over-aggressive against what they think is a very-hittable fastball. He's striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings despite not having swing-and-miss stuff, meaning he's in the wrong level. The only way to see if Tropeano is for real is to challenge him against hitters who know how to hit. The Astros might not want to send Tropeano to the launching pad of Lancaster, but as a college pitcher with advanced secondary stuff, he could probably handle the jump to Double-A if they chose to spare him the experience of pitching in the California League.
Adys Portillo, Right-Handed Pitcher (SD)
Portillo definitely needed to go back to the Midwest League after walking six batters per nine innings there last season. That just made the damage worse when hitters sported a .366 BABIP against him, ending in a slurpee-worthy 7.11 ERA. In his second go-round in Fort Wayne, Portillo is still walking more batters than the Padres would probably like, and there's a chance he always will, but he's cut it down to 3.86 per nine, which is good enough. His 1.22 ERA is impressive, but is mainly a product of his unsustainable .184 BABIP in 2012, so don't put much stock in that. But even when adjusted for luck, his FIP is 3.29 and he's still striking out enough batters to show he's handing the league. Unlike Tropeano, Portillo could not handle a jump to Double-A, so if the Padres don't want to subject him to the California League he'll have to stick around in Fort Wayne the entire season, but it does appear he's got his mechanics under control and has figured out how to pitch at the level.
