MLB Prospect Watch

Prospect Action - 6/14/13

Triple-A

• The Pawtucket Red Sox took a doubleheader sweep on Friday, thanks to a gem from Allen Webster in Game 1 and the first Triple-A home run for Xander Bogaerts in Game 2.
• Trevor Bauer struck out six batters over five innings and allowed two runs, but just one earned, notes The Coulmbus Dispatch.
• Tigers prospect Bruce Rondon recorded another save, but he did give up a run in this outing, despite striking out three. 

Double-A

• Adam Conley earned his sixth win of the season after striking out eight batters over seven innings of work.  The Marlins left-hander got all the run support he would need from a pair of home runs by Jake Marisnick and Kyle Jensen.
• Chris Reed allowed just one run over eight strong innings of work and got run support from fellow Dodgers prospect Joc Pederson, who hit his ninth home run of the season.
• Padres pitching prospect Keyvius Sampson didn't allow a run over 5 2/3 innings of work on Friday to earn his fourth win of the season.
• Mike O'Neill continues to defy logic as the Cardinals prospect reached base five times, going 3-for-3 with a pair of walks, raising his batting average to .332 and his on-base percentage to .442 on the year.

High-A

• Courtney Hawkins continued to show off his power potential despite his propensity for striking out, as the White Sox prospect blasted his 12th home run of the season.
• A's slugger Max Muncy hit his 17th home run of the season on Friday, continuing his assault on the California League and pushing for a mid-season promotion.
• The Cleveland Indians Carolina League affiliate put up 18 hits on Friday but lost, despite three hits each from Tyler Naquin and Troy Wolters, who is now working as a catcher.

Low-A

• Chris Stratton continued his winning ways in the South Atlantic League on Friday night, advancing to 7-3 after striking out 9 batters in six innings of work.  The Giants first-round pick from 2012 out of Mississippi State is having no problem adjusting to full-season ball, working his ERA down to 3.56 while striking out over a batter per inning.
• Another 2012 first-rounder, Nick Travieso, earned his first win as a professional, allowing just one run over five innings of work.  Travieso was supported by fellow Reds prospect and 2012 draftee Jesse Winker, who hit his ninth home run of the season.

Prospect Action - 6/13/13

Triple-A

• Giants right-hander Chris Heston turned in a rare minor league complete game, striking out nine in the scoreless outing while allowing just five hits, writes Brandon Simes of MiLB.com.
• Zack Wheeler was dominant in what is expected to be his final start in the minor leagues, says Robert Emrich of MiLB.com.  The Mets right-hander, who is slated to start in the majors next week, tossed 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out seven.
• As the Tigers continue to have issues at the back of their major league bullpen, Bruce Rondon continues to dominate Triple-A, collecting his 11th save on Thursday and lowering his ERA to 0.74 on the season.

Double-A

• After seeing Xander Bogaerts receive a promotion to Triple-A, Anthony Ranaudo turned in the best start of his strong season making a case for a promotion of his own, notes Kevin Thomas of The Portland Press Herald.  The Red Sox right-hander struck out 13 batters over 7 2/3 innings of two hit baseball to advance to 7-1 on the season.
• Zach Lee took a hard-luck loss, dropping to 5-4 on the season despite allowing just two runs over six strong innings while striking out eight.  The only mistake the Dodgers prospect made was a home run allowed to Brewers outfielder Kentrail Davis, which proved to be the difference.
• Jonathan Singleton was perfect at the plate on Thursday, reaching base all five times including a pair of home runs.  The Astros prospect provided all the run support needed for Nick Tropeano, who turned in five innings of one-run baseball.

High-A

• Francisco Martinez, now back with the Tigers organization, hit a two-run home run, notes David Yates of The Lakeland Ledger.  It's the second blast in nine games since returning to the Tigers after having been dropped off the 40-man roster by the Mariners.  Martinez was originally a member of the Tigers organization but was sent to the Mariners in the 2011 Doug Fister trade.
• Jason Martinson put up the top performance of the day as the Nationals outfield prospect blasted three home runs in support of teammate A.J. Cole, who struck out 10 in seven innings of work, notes Emrich.
• Phillies third base prospect Maikel Franco homered again, giving him 15 on the season as he continues to emerge as one of the top prospects in their system.

Low-A

• Michael Ynoa is still healthy and still pitching, as the A's right-hander threw five scoreless innings while striking out five to earn his second win of the season on Thrusday.
• Rangers third base prospect Joey Gallo continues to blast home runs, hitting his 21st of the season, but he's also hitting more consistently, going 3-for-4 with a double as well to raise his batting average to .245 on the year.
• Byron Buxton went just 1-for-5 (to lower his batting average to .343!) but the Twins prospect did hit his eighth home run of the year in the game.

Max Muncy and the Problem with the California League

Max Muncy is blowing up.  His three-home run night on Wednesday is just the latest and greatest feat of his breakout season which has seen the former Baylor Bear hit 13 home runs after hitting just four in the same exact number of plate appearances last season.

What is the reason for Muncy's spike in production?  We don't know, and that's part of the problem.

Muncy, a fifth round pick by the Oakland A's in last year's draft, is a first baseman, and there is little disputing that fact.  I mean, look at him.  He falls in the "not selling any jeans" category.  He also falls in the "flat out rakes" category.

Lauded for his patient approach when drafted, Muncy put that patience on display last season in Low-A Beloit, posting a 15 percent walk rate and more walks than strike outs en route to a .275/.383/.432 line.  The doubles power was there (he hit 20 in 64 games) but they just weren't clearing the fence.  This year they are.

But this year he's in the California League.  To what extent do we give credit to the hitting environments in the Golden State?

Even with his big day yesterday, Muncy is tied for third in the California League in homers.  He's surely not the only one enjoying the warm, thin air.  Muncy currently ranks 11th in the league in wRC+ (weighted runs created - an all-encompassing offensive statistic that takes into effect park and league factors), meaning even in the context of the gaudy numbers put up around the California League, he's one of the better offensive players.  So perhaps his raw numbers are partially inflated, but even compared to everyone else's, he's still very good with the bat.

Which shouldn't be surprising.  Muncy has still managed to walk more than he's whiffed, and doubles are often an indicator of future power, so the fact that they've turned into home runs in the California League isn't terrible surprising.  But will they continue to clear the fence in Double-A?  We don't know.  But we need to find out soon.

Muncy has clearly shown he can handle A-ball.  As a college hitter with a polished approach, he shouldn't need a full year at every level.  More importantly, his success in his current league comes with such a grain of salt that the A's can't put enough stock in it do properly evaluate Muncy.

Which is part of the problem with the California League.  When a prospect does this well there, it's tough to get excited about it, and with good reason.  A prospect's time in the minor leagues is as much about evaluation by the organization as it is development for the player.  Is Muncy a player the A's can factor into their future or is he a doubles hitting first baseman whose power numbers have been inflated by a hitter's league?  The only way to find out is to promote him to Double-A and see if he can still replicate some resemblance of the power he's shown this year.

Prospect Action - 6/5/13

Triple-A

• Tigers outfield prospect Nick Castellanos continued his hot streak, hitting his third home run in four games as part of a 3-for-5 day, writes John Parker of MiLB.com.
• Gerrit Cole was strong on Wednesday, tossing seven shutout innings, says Danny Wild of MiLB.com. The outing came on the same day that Pirates starter Wandy Rodriguez went down with injury, which means nothing other than coincidentally convenient timing.
• Paul Demny's spot start in Syracuse didn't go too well, as the right-hander allowed seven runs in five innings despite striking out six.

Double-A

• Red Sox pitching prospect Drake Britton was virtually un-hittable on Wednesday, allowing just one hit over eight innings of work, notes The Erie Times-News.
• Cesar Puello doesn't appear to be letting the Biogenesis scandal effect his play, as the Mets outfielder hit his 10th home run of the season on Wednesday, writes Mike Ashmore of ThunderBaseball.com.  It was the third home run in as many games for Puello, who is now hitting .316/.395/.571 on the season.
• Sebastian Valle hit his fifth home run of the season, notes Philly.com.  It was the second home run in as many games for the Phillies catching prospect, who has been passed by Tommy Joseph on the organizational depth chart.

High-A

• Robbie Ray continues to have success in his second go-round at the Carolina League, as the Nationals left-hander struck out seven in 6 2/3 innings on Wednesday, notes Jake Seiner of MiLB.com.
• Max Muncy took advantage of a windy night on Wednesday, as the A's prospect hit three home runs on a night in which there were 11 total blasts.
• Henry Owens threw five scoreless innings of one-hit ball, despite walking five in the outing.  

Low-A

• Jefferson Olacio turned in his second-straight one-earned-run start since allowing 10 earned runs in an outing, as the White Sox lefty earned his second win of the season.
• Rangers outfield prospect Nick Williams hit his ninth home run of the season as part of a three-hit day.

Prospect Call Up Rumors - Marlins, Choice, Cosart

Are Yelich and Marisnick Next?

Injuries and general lethargy from their major league roster have already forced the Miami Marlins to call up prospects Marcell Ozuna and Derek Dietrich before they originally planned, and the natural inclination of Marlins fans is to anticipate the same for two of their top remaining prospects Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick, notes Michael Jong of FishStripes.com.

Yelich probably shouldn't be up this season, but he probably will be at some point, especially given the Marlins track record this season.  It would be a real stretch, not to mention a real detrement, however, if Marisnick is rushed to the majors this season (despite his two grand slams on Thursday night).  Marisnick still has plenty of tools, but his 33/5 K/BB ratio in Double-A is the biggest reason for his struggles (.652 OPS on the season) and his biggest obstacle to overcome in order to have major league success.

Most importantly, however, are the logistics of trying to fit Yelich or Marisnick into the lineup in the major leagues.  Giancarlo Stanton will be back at some point, and despite being rushed and a prime regression candidate, Marcell Ozuna has played well enough to stay in the lineup.  Chris Coghlan is hitting well of late, Justin Ruggiano leads the team in home runs, and Logan Morrison is on a rehab assignment and could see some time in the outfield as well.  It's a crowded lineup, and while there is a need to sell tickets, there is no need for additional outfielders.

 

Choice Knocking on Oakland's Door?

Former first-round draft picks tearing it up in Triple-A are typically expected to get a phone call to the majors at any point, and things are no different for A's outfield prospect Michael Choice, notes Joe Davidson of The Sacramento Bee.  After all, Choice is hitting .291/.400/.476 in the Pacific Coast League while walking more than ever and striking out less.

But for now, the A's don't have room to play him anywhere.  The A's entered the season with a crowded outfield, consisting of four starter-worthy players (Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick and Chris Young) and a DH in Seth Smith who plays mostly against right-handers but is also an outfielder.  They're all still around, meaning Choice is staying in Sacramento.

But for how long?  Reddick is on the DL with a wrist injury and got off to a terrible start in trying to replicate his breakout 2012 season.  Young isn't hitting either now that he's getting a chance to play.  Choice isn't taking their jobs away now, but if they continue to struggle, the A's could choose to promote Choice and try him out in the outfield rather than add a bat at the trade deadline, a move that could cost them Choice in the first place.

 

When Will Cosart Get the Call?

The Houston Astros stink and all of the optimism surrounding their organization resides in the minor leagues, making it a natural question to ask when a player like Jarred Cosart, the team's best near-major-league-ready starter, will be called up?  Brian McTaggart of MLB.com asked just that question, and while he was all but told that Cosart will get to the majors at some point this season, it appears that there is no immediate rush to bring him up.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow's answer was that Cosart isn't getting called up because there are no available spots in the Astros rotation, which is dumb, if it were true, but no one really believes Luhnow here.  This is the kind of answer GM's give to questions like this from beat writers.  What Luhnow would likely have preferred to say is "when he can stop walking a batter every other inning."

Cosart is one of the more talented players acquired by the Astros during their rebuilding process and has a power arm that has helped him put up good numbers in the minors.  Despite this, however, he simply gives away too many free base runners, and has walked 4.6 BB/9 in Triple-A over the past two years.  His command issues cause many (including myself) to believe that his future is as a reliever, but the Astros are wisely leaving him as a starter for now.  What they can't do, however, is rush him to the majors.

Cosart needs to remain in Triple-A and continue the refinement of his command and his off-speed pitches in hopes of being able to remain a starter in the big leagues.  Once he's ready, no one on the Astros pitching staff is going to block his path.