MLB Prospect Watch

Prospect Action - 5/31/12

Triple-A

• Mike Montgomery has struggled this season, but his latest start on Thrusday showed us why the Royals consider him to be such a big part of their future, notes Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com, as the lefty threw no-hit baseball into the sixth inning before getting tagged for a solo homer by Cubs prospect Brett Jackson.  Wil Myers also homered in the game in support of Montgomery.
• Tom Koehler threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings, picking up his sixth win of the season, says Alex Cassara of The New Orleans Times-Picayune.  Koehler has now turned in a quality start in six of his last seven starts.
• Mariners 3B prospect Vinny Catricala hit a home run off of Diamondbacks prospect Pat Corbin, reports Mike Curto of The [Tacoma] News Tribune.  After a hot spring, Catricala has struggled in Triple-A this season, batting just .223 and now with just three home runs on the season.

Double-A

• Bryce Brentz went 5-for-5 with three doubles on Thursday, says Andrew Pentis of MilB.com, as the Red Sox prospect brought his batting average above the .300 mark to .306.  Brentz continues to hit, still stikes out too much and continues to display no control over the strike zone.  Much like his first-half last season when he batted .359 in Low-A ball, Brentz is once again benefiting from an unsustainable BABIP that's sitting over .400.
• Yankees OF prospect Cody Johnson hit his 14th home run of the season, which leads the Eastern League, notes The Erie Times-News.  Johnson continues to strike out, with 61 whiffs in 45 games, 
• Zack Wheeler threw seven innings, allowing just one run and striking out eight, reports Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.  The Mets prospect improved to 5-2 on the season and lowered his ERA to 1.88.

High-A

• Brandon Workman continues to go deep into games (by minor league standards), throwing six innings for the second straight start, according to Danny Wild of MiLB.com, this time allowing just two hits and fanning six.
• Bobby Borchering and Chris Owings both homered in support of David Holmberg, who struck out 10 batters in seven strong innings, but it wasn't enough of a cushion for their bullpen, who blew his lead and ultimately the game.

Low-A

• Not known for his speed, Tigers first base prospect Aaron Westlake ripped a game-tying triple on Thursday, notes MLive.com.
• Jose Fernandez continued his dominance of the South Atlantic League, as the Marlins prospect struck out eight batters in six more scoreless innings, writes David Heck of MiLB.com.
• Gary Sanchez continues to make his case for a promotion, blasting two more home runs on Thursday, adds Heck.

 

Prospect Action - 5/30/12

Triple-A

• After a slow start to the season, Blue Jays top prospect Travis d'Arnaud has been red-hot of late, and continued his offensive outburst on Wednesday with a 3-for-5 game with a double, notes David Heck of MiLB.com.  d'Arnaud is now slugging .603 this season.
• In a pitching matchup of struggling prospects, Dellin Betances outpitched Jacob Turner, as the Yankees prospect advanced to 3-4 on the season while the Tigers righty dropped to 0-1.  Both pitchers battled their control, with Betances walking four in six innings but limiting the damage to just two earned runs, while Turner walked five in as many innings but allowed a home run.

Double-A

• Michael Choice broke out of a slump with a 4-for-5 night that included a home run, says Robert Emrich of MiLB.com.  After hitting 30 home runs last year, the A's 2010 first-round pick has hit just four home runs this season and is slugging just .353.
• Kyle Skipworth hit for the fifth straight game, as the Marlins catcher collected two more hits on Wednesday, notes Jeff Elliott of The Florida Times-Union.  Despite his recent short-term success, however, Skipworth continues to lead the Southern League in strikeout rate, whiffing at a rate of over 32 percent.

High-A

• Drake Britton struck out seven over six innings to complete a May in which the Red Sox lefty posted an ERA of 2.10, says David Heck of MiLB.com.  Britton gave up just six earned runs over four starts in the month of May, but his season ERA still sits at 5.80.
• Trayce Thompson blasted a three-run homer on Wednesday night to help lead his fellow White Sox prospects to vistory, according to The Winston-Salem Journal.  For Thompson, it was his sixth home run of the season, but he's still striking out in around 30 percent of his plate appeareances, a rate which is way too high for any amount of power production, and especially for someone slugging just .429.
• Chad Jenkins got outpitched by B.J. Hermsen on Wednesday, as the Twins righty earned his third win of the season by tossing 8 2/3 innings and allowing just two runs.  Jenkins made it through just four innings and allowed a home run to Aaron Hicks, the sixth bomb of the season for the Twins former first-rounder.

Low-A

• In a ridiculous offensive day for the Yankees affiliate in Charleston, catching prospect Gary Sanchez knocked two doubles and a grand slam as part of a seven-RBI day, while outfield prospect Tyler Austin 5-for-5 with a double and a triple, says Andrew Pentis of MiLB.com.  Sanchez has hit well this season but his power has not been there, with just five blasts on the season.  Austin, on the other hand, has hit for more power than expected, slugging .661 this year despite his strikeout numbers and a 53-to-22 strikeout to walk ratio.
• Rangers second base prospect Rougned Odor chimed in with three hits, including a double, notes The Hickory Daily Record.  Odor, in his first full season, is establishing himself as a legitimate prospect within an already deep Rangers system, hitting .300/.363/.494 on the year.  He's not controlling the strike zone the way Jurickson Profar did last year, but that may be an unfair bar to set for Odor.

 

Prospect Action - 5/28/12

Triple-A

• Trevor Bauer fanned eight batters, facing a lineup that included a number of rehabbing major leaguers, but the Diamondbacks top prospect also walked four batters and battled his own command, says Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.
• Wil Myers continued his hot hitting, as the Royals prospect went 3-for-4 with two RBI's, notes Ryan Jones of The New Orleans Times-Picayune.
• The Pirates prospects in Triple-A Indianapolis went on a home run barrage on Monday, including a bomb by Starling Marte, writes Nancy Zinni of PiratesProspects.com.

Double-A

• White Sox pitching prospect Simon Castro allowed just an unearned run over eight innings, writes Dennis Lin of The Birmingham News.
• Oliver Drake tossed a gem on Monday, as the Orioles prospect threw six shutout innings, allowing just one hit, says Jordan Tuwiner of Orioles-Nation.com.
• Zeke Spruill tossed six shutout innings of his own, as the Braves prospect lowered his ERA to 3.50 on the season, reports Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.

High-A

• Cody Buckel tossed six shutout innings after the Rangers prospect apparently picked up a new pitch from Trevor Bauer, reports David Heck of MiLB.com.  Facing off against Buckel was Nationals prospect Robbie Ray, who was effective, allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings, but struck out just two batters, according to Luke Erickson of NationalsProspects.com, who adds that Ray has yet to fan a left-handed hitter this season.
• Billy Hamilton continues to run wild, as the Reds prospect stole three more bases, giving him 52 on the season, says Danny Wild of MiLB.com.

Low-A

• Rays prospect Jake Hager drove in five runs with a double and a triple, notes Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com.
• Parker Bridwell failed to make it out of the fourth inning, allowing two earned runs, notes Tuwiner.
• Angels prospects Jean Segura and Kaleb Cowart both recorded four-hit days, says Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.
• Steven Moya blasted a home run, the third in two days for the Tigers prospect, says Dean Holzwarth of MLive.com.

 

Moving On Up - May 21-27

Hello Baseball fanatics, once again it is Jeffrey Snedden here to update you on the call-ups and rookie status changes of the week in Major League Baseball.  Welcome to “Moving On Up” for May 21 – 27.

Remember, if you like these columns I am writing here, please check out all of my sports writing and podcasts at www.jeffsnedden.com!

Let’s jump right into this weeks “Moving On Up”!

The St. Louis Cardinals called up 1B Matt Adams from AAA-Memphis of the PCL.  Adams is expected to take over the first base position while Lance Berkman recovers from an ACL injury that should keep him shelved up to 10 weeks.  Adams will be seeing regular at-bats for the Redbirds, so far playing in six games and hitting .318 in 24 PA.

The Miami Marlins called up prospect INF Donovan Solano on May 21.  Solano has played in 4 games and is hitting a robust .667 in 3 PA thus far., splitting time between 2B and SS.  Solano was recalled from AAA-New Orleans to help the club while injuries to starters Omar Infante and Emilo Bonifacio are worked out. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates called up OF Gorkys Hernandez from AAA-Indianapolis on May 21 to serve as the fourth outfielder after pending the release of veteran Nate McLouth.  Whether Hernandez will be with the club long is unknown, but he has been used sparingly thus far (5 PA with no hits and 1 BB).

The Angels called up OF Kole Calhoun from AAA-Salt Lake of the PCL in May 22.  Calhoun has played in four games, getting nine PA and hitting .286 thus far.  The 24-year old outfielder is probably ticketed for another trip to the minors once the Angels re-evaluate their roster this coming week.

The Detroit Tigers recalled prospect OF Quintin Berry on May 23 from AAA-Toledo of the IL.  Berry has played in three games, netting 15 PA and hitting .333 with two doubles, an RBI, and a stolen base in his first taste of big league play.  With OF Austin Jackson on the DL until June 1, Berry will split time with fellow OF Don Kelly in CF while Jackson heals.

The Cleveland Indians recalled prospect SS Juan Diaz from AA-Akron of the EL.  Thus far, he has played in only one game and netted one at-bat – a K.  His future will be determined by the teams need for a utility player on the roster during the upcoming Interleague games in NL parks. 

The Kansas City Royals recalled prospect P Will Smith on May 23 from AAA-Omaha of the PCL.  He has pitched in one game thus far, taking the loss in his first major league start.

The Minnesota Twins recalled P Cole DeVries from AAA-Rochester of the IL on May 24.  He started one game thus far, going five innings and taking the loss in his first big league start.

 

No Longer Prospects, Welcome to Your Rookie Season

Players who are beginning to reach the MLB thresholds to be considered a rookie, and thus are no longer prospects.

Oakland Athletics OF Yoenis Cespedes is at 119 PA through May 27 and should pass the 130 PA mark this coming week, making 2012 his official rookie campaign.

Washington Nationals OF Bryce Harper is up to 107 PA in 2012 and will be crossing over to rookie status within the next week as well.

 

The next group of prospects who will be coming up on the change-over to their rookie campaigns are as follows.  Remember, a player needs 130 PA to be considered a rookie and a pitcher must pitch 50 IP.

Milwaukee Brewers OF Norichika Aoki is at 86 PA.

Boston Red Sox 3B Will Middlebrooks is at 84 PA.

Minnesota Twins SS Brian Dozier is at 81 PA.

All three players should reach rookie status sometime in early mid-June if their playing time remains the same.

The Texas Rangers SP Yu Darvish passed the 50.0 IP plateau and is now considered a rookie.

The Detroit Tigers SP Drew Smyly will pass the 50.0 IP plateau in his next start, he is currently at 48.2 IP.

The Baltimore Orioles SP Wei-Yin Chen is at 48.1 IP and will officially be in his rookie season after his start tonight.

The next group of Pitchers who will be passing the rookie threshold very soon are as follows:

The Toronto Blue Jays SP Drew Hutchinson is at 37.2 IP.

The New York Yankees RP David Phelps is at 31.1 IP.

That’s it for the Week of May 21-27.  Please check back next Monday for the next edition of “Moving On Up”.

In the meantime, get all of your prospect information right here at www.mlbprospectwatch.com. 

You can follow Jeff Snedden on Twitter @jeffsnedden

Thank you for reading and enjoy a safe and happy Memorial Day with your loved ones.

 

BABIP Beneficiaries

It's early in the season, so statistical anomalies are everywhere.  One of the biggest ones come among those prospects who are off to hot starts, especially with the batting average, and many of these players are getting the help of extra balls in play falling in.

It doesn't mean they are going to come crashing back to earth, but it is important to understand that certain things are unsustainable.  For example, last year, Cardinals outfield prospect Oscar Taveras batted .386 in the Midwest League, thanks in large part to his tremendous hitting ability, but also largely due to his .440 BABIP, a mark that is over 100 points higher than average.  Even with a more realistic BABIP, Taveras would have had a great season, but he's obviously not a .386 hitter.  No one is.

So before we get all jacked up about prospects off to red-hot starts this season, let's see which ones are getting the kind of help they shouldn't count on for the rest of the season.

• The Royals like what they have in Jorge Bonifacio, and pushed the young outfielder to the Midwest League at age 19, but he's not going to sustain the .393 BABIP that has helped him hit .320/.390/.446 so far this season.  He's hitting more line drives than average, and did so last season as well, so his normal BABIP could be higher than average, but it's no where near this high.
• Ryan Brett is a personal favorite of mine, and is establishing himself as a nice second base prospect for the Rays, but .373 BABIP, thanks in large part to a groundball rate that's 10 percent higher than his league average and 15 percent higher than his rate last year have helped contribute to that.  He'll have to continue to pound the ball on the ground to keep this up, which may help explain why his slugging percentage has dropped 62 points this season.
• The Yankees sent Gary Sanchez back in the South Atlantic League for the second straight season, and it's easy to make the claim that he's figured the league out (it happens!), but it needs to be noted that much of his .309/.360/.443 line can be attributed to his .410 BABIP.  That's unsustainable, of course, but Sanchez his hitting line drives in 25 percent of his balls in play, up from 13 percent last year, meaning he's barrelling up the ball almost twice as often this season.  It won't keep his BABIP over .400, but it does mean he's been hitting the ball better and not just getting lucky.
• Fellow Sally Leaguers Alen Hanson and Brent Keys are both having breakout seasons, and both can give at least some of the credit to their .396 and .394 BABIP's respectively.  The Pirates and Marlins both like what their prospects have done, but neither should expect Hanson's fly balls to continue to leave the park at a 15 percent rate or Keys to keep hitting .382.
• Billy Beane is getting a lot of credit for the A's acquisition of Miles Head this off-season in return from the Red Sox as part of the package for closer Andrew Bailey, but Beane likely has much less to do with Head's .418 BABIP than does the ridiculously hitter-friendly California League.
• The Sox may be missing Head, but they are enjoying the play of Jackie Bradley, who's Carolina League-leading .368 batting average is being aided by his fifth-in-the-league .409 BABIP, this despite a below-average line drive rate and an above-average fly ball rate.
• When a player is hitting .411, his BABIP has to be unsustainably high, so don't expect Tigers 3B Nick Castellanos to keep up his ridiculous .482 BABIP, which is 84 points higher than the next highest player in the Florida State League.