When the Chicago Cubs took prep shortstop Javier Baez with the 9th overall pick in last year's draft, they took a chance on the potential of a bigger star over the (relatively) more predictable pick of a college pitcher, passing up the likes of Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes and Sonny Gray, all of whom went later in the first round.
From a scouting point, it was not the wrong pick. Every organization has it's own philosophy, and the Cubs new management, under new President of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein, and General Manager Jed Hoyer, went for the position player remaining with the highest ceiling. At the time he was drafted, Baseball America had the following to say about Baez:
"He has the fastest bat in the draft, and while he has a dead-pull approach at times, he has the bat speed to let balls get deep in the zone. Baez has plus raw power as well, which may serve him well if he has to move to third base. He has the defensive tools to stay at short until he outgrows it, as at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, he doesn't have much range to spare. He has plenty of arm for either position."
The only real knock on Baez has been his emotional maturity and an attitude that has been described as "volatile."
Last August, the Cubs let Baez get a taste of professional ball, giving him 18 at-bats combined between the Arizona League and their affiliate in Boise of the Northwest League, leading many, including Baseball America, to predict that he would begin the 2012 season at Low-A Peoria.
Instead, the team sent Baez to extended spring training to begin the season, a decision that was likely made due to the combination of the rawness of his talent and the aforementioned bouts of immaturity. Late in the spring, Keith Law of ESPN.com pointed out Baez's rawness:
On the minor league side on Wednesday, Cubs shortstop prospect Javier Baez, No. 95 on my top 100 and their first pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, showed unbelievable power with a big home run to the opposite field at Fitch Park where he didn't even fully square the ball up, only to have it take off when it left his bat. Baez later showed his youth and rawness on a three-pitch strikeout where he had already started his two-strike swing before the pitcher had released the ball.
Like the drafting of Baez, there's no right or wrong decision here, but rather simply an organizational philosophy and decision-making at work by the people who get paid big bucks to make them. Epstein and Hoyer likely had significant discussions with Senior VP of Scouting and Player Development Jason McLeod over the proper way to handle Baez and this is what they determined to be the best course of action. No matter the outcome, this is the process teams have to go through, and in the inexact science of player development, a wrong decision based on the right information is not the end of the world.
It's what has happened sense that is perplexing.
In 24 extended spring training games, Baez has hit eight home runs and has driven in 26 runs. Facing primarily other prep draft picks and raw international prospects, many of whom are stateside for the first time, Baez is clearly a head (and perhaps shoulders) above his competition. He's also had some issues with that maturity thing spring up, including one game where he admired a home run a little longer than his opposing coaches would have liked, then responded to their taunts (and some of the onus needs to go on the coaches who are yelling at a 19-year-old) with an expletive-laced jab of his own.
If the Cubs were worried about his maturity, then they might have been right, but if they were worried about exposing Baez to too-advanced pitching, then they might have under-estimated their new prospect.
Erring on the side of caution is not a mistake however. Continuing to follow-through with it, however, is. Baez is simply not being challenged in extended spring training, and while his maturity issues still likely concern the organization, they must realize that there's always the chance that he might not grow out of them. The Brewers took a cautious approach with Brett Lawrie, who battled the same maturity concerns and worries that his intensity sometimes came out on the wrong side of the spectrum, but at some point, they had to let him play where he belonged and hope that he stayed out of trouble. Whether that factored into trading him to the Blue Jays is something that may only be known in Milwaukee offices, but clearly Lawrie is still battling many of those same demons, and likely will for quite some time.
The same applies to Baez. If the team is keeping him in Arizona because of his maturity, then they are restricting a prospect based on something that he may never overcome. If they are keeping him there until short-season ball starts with the plan of sending him there instead of Peoria, then they are severely underestimating his talents.
Fellow 2011 prep shortstop draft pick Francisco Lindor, taken one pick before Baez by the Cleveland Indians, entered pro ball with a reputation as more of a defensive player, yet is doing just fine in Low-A ball, as did Manny Machado last season after being drafted by the Orioles in the first round in 2010. The jump from high school to the Midwest or South Atlantic Leagues can be daunting, but many prep shortstops have done it over the years, and many did so without Baez's offensive abilities.
Perhaps there have been additional undisclosed issues with Baez behind closed doors, and the Cubs don't want to reward type of behavior with a promotion, and if that's the case, then the Cubs are handling things properly. But I haven't heard of anything along those lines, and there's something to be said for Baez learning the rigors of the travel that comes with playing in a real minor league season, which is often one of the biggest adjustments for young players.
Currently playing shortstop in Peoria is Marco Hernandez, who is a prospect in his own right, but nowhere near on the level of Baez. In his first taste of full-season ball, Hernandez, who can also play second base, has posted an OPS of .491. A mid-level prospect batting .197 is not going to block a first-round pick and the team's $2.6 million investment.
There appears to be no reason why Baez is still in extended spring training, dominating inferior competition, unless there are additional maturity issues that haven't leaked out. The old Cubs regime had a reputation for rushing young prospects, often times to their detriment. This regime, on the other hand, appears to be erring on the side of caution, a philosophy which ultimately should serve them well, but only if they recognize the situations where they are being too cautious as they appears before them.
This appears to be one of those situations.
