MLB Prospect Watch

Prospect Action - 6/4/13

Triple-A

• Andre Rienzo tossed seven shutout innings, striking out six, according to The Charlotte Observer.  The White Sox Brazilian right-hander hasn't allowed an earned run over his past two starts, but still sports an ERA over 6.00 on the season.
• Nick Castellanos hit his eighth home run of the season on Tuesday as part of a two-hit day that saw the Tigers top prospect raise his batting average to .421 over his past 10 games.
• Mike Olt, making his way back from early-season injuries, hit his second home run of the week, and on the season.  The Rangers prospect could begin seeing time in right field if the team believes that Nelson Cruz might be suspended with his role in the Biogenesis scandal.

Double-A

• Taylor Jungmann spun a gem on Tuesday, as the Brewers prospect allowed just an unearned run and two hits over seven innings of work, writes Jon Reed of AL.com.
• Cesar Puello put together a three extra-base hit day, as the Mets outfield prospect collected a pair of doubles and his ninth home run of the season.
• Anthony Ranaudo got hit around on Tuesday, allowing seven runs while failing to get out of the fifth inning.  The Red Sox right-hander has been strong this season for Portland, but this start raises his ERA to 2.43 on the year.

High-A

• Courtney Hawkins has been striking out at extreme rates this season, but the White Sox 2012 first-rounder ran into his 9th and 10th home runs of the season, notes Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.
• Nick Delmonico is quietly having a break-out season, but the Orioles prospect made some noise on Wednesday, collecting four hits including a home run, writes Jake Seiner of MiLB.com.
• Twins prospect Miguel Sano blasted his 14th home run of the season, but it's all his squad would manage off of Brewers prospect Jed Bradley, who gave up just the one run over six innings of work.

Low-A

• Pirates outfielder Josh Bell blasted his 8th home run of the year and is now hitting .271/.345/.466 on the season.
• Rangers catching prospect Jorge Alfaro blasted his 10th home run of the season.
• Nats lefty Matt Purke didn't get the win, but he did manage to strike out 8 batters over 4 2/3 innings.

Jonathan Schoop Out 6-8 Weeks

The Orioles are running out of prospects.

In a farm system that is as top-heavy as any in baseball, the Orioles entered the season with three significant prospects, and very little else.  Top prospect Dylan Bundy has missed the entire season after having a PRP injection in his elbow in an attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery, and Kevin Gausman appears to be putting his prospect days in his rear-view mirror.

Now Jonathan Schoop, the Orioles only potential impact position prospect anywhere near the majors, will be out for 6-8 weeks with a stress fracture in his back, reports Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.  Schoop was placed on the disabled list a week ago while the Orioles attempted to assess the injury.

The setback for Schoop makes it unlikely that he will be able to contribute in the majors this season, although it doesn't rule it out completely.  Schoop's injury didn't appear to be affecting his play, as his numbers this season in Triple-A are similar to what he has done throughout his career.  I've discussed Schoop's struggles hitting right-handed pitching before, and the biggest impact of this injury is that he'll miss two months worth of at-bats in which to work on solving his issues versus righties.

Assuming he has no setbacks during his recovery, he could return to the field in late-July and could still be ready for a September call-up to help the Orioles off their bench down the stretch.

Are the Orioles Rushing Kevin Guasman?

The Baltimore Orioles are planning to promote pitching prospect Kevin Gausman on Thursday, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports.  The move comes as a surprise, given that Orioles GM Dan Duquette said a week ago that Gausman was not a candidate to be called-up to fill one of the spots in their rotation.

Which is what scares me about this move.  Having not had a chance to see Gausman in person this season, I can't tell you first hand whether or not he's ready to face major league hitters.  I can only go off of what others say, and that can be dangerous.  For instance, Jason Churchill of ESPN.com tweeted that scouts he talked to earlier this season didn't think Gausman was ready.  On the other hand, J.D. Sussman of FanGraphs.com recently posted a scouting report calling for the Orioles to make exactly this move.  And I know J.D. and respect his opinion.

But the Orioles' change of heart begs the question - what was their thinking and why did their mind change?

A win on Tuesday evening ended a six game skid for the Orioles, and with vacancies in their rotation, Gausman is probably their best option.  With a 3.11 ERA and a 2.44 FIP in Double-A this season, Gausman has left little doubt that he's ready for a step up, and with his exceptional control (just under one walk per nine innings), he's at a low risk to self-combust if asked to make a jump to the majors.  Additionally, he's the top prospect in an otherwise barren farm system.

But all of that was true a week ago.  Was the Orioles recent losing streak really enough to change their mind?

If the issue a week ago was financially-related - in that they intended to hold him back past the Super-2 deadline but after six straight losses decided that it was worth the extra money they'll spend with that extra arbitration year to help right the ship now - then I'm ok with the decision.  A change in financial strategy can be dictated by wins and losses on the field.

But if the Orioles internal evaluation was that Gausman wasn't quite ready for the majors, yet after a week of losses the Orioles decided that, ready or not, he was still their best option, then I'm not as sold.  The Orioles are competing this season, and Gausman at even 75 percent of his potential may be their best option, but rushing their only healthy impact prospect in a panic mode could cost them.  If Gausman is close, but not quite there, then a handful of additional minor league starts (perhaps at the Triple-A level) could be all he needs to be a truly impact pitcher down the stretch, a la Matt Harvey after his promotion last season.  Calling him up before he's completely ready could leave them with an average pitcher for four months instead of an above-average one for two-and-a-half.

But again, I don't know the Orioles thinking.  I hope that they felt he was ready all along and were trying to hold him back for financial reasons instead of rushing him to the majors in a panic move.  If that's the case, they I applaud them for being willing to take on extra salary down the road to make a run at things now.  But if this is because they're out of decent pitching options, then it concerns me, whether Gausman is ready or not, that the Orioles changed their developmental philosophy on their top prospect based on a bad week of results at the major league level.

Gausman should be able to hold his own either way because of his exceptional control and power arsenal, but we have to hope that by calling him up now instead of in a month or two, the Orioles aren't costing themselves a chance at getting an exceptional finished product for a stretch run.

Injury Update: Schoop, Graham

Schoop Strains Back

The Baltimore Orioles have placed Jonathan Schoop on the 7-day DL with a back strain, reports Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun, who notes that the "injury isn't expected to be serious."

Schoop has spent the entire 2013 in Triple-A, hitting .268/.331/.368 on the season.  I noted before the year that this was a make-or-break year for Schoop to prove that he could hit right-handed pitching more consistently, but even after a strong fall league and a solid World Baseball Classic, he still has yet to prove he can consistently hit same-handed pitching.

So far this season in a limited sample of games, Schoop has kept with his career trends:

 

Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RHB	33	110	101	26	3	0	3	11	7	19	.257	.318	.376	.694
vs LHP as RHB	19	34	30	9	3	0	0	9	3	7	.300	.382	.400	.782

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2013.

The limited sample from this year wouldn't be enough to make the determination on it's own, but when pared with his totals from last year's dramatic splits...

Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RHB	121	387	339	74	16	0	8	41	30	78	.218	.291	.336	.628
vs LHP as RHB	71	168	146	45	8	1	6	22	20	25	.308	.399	.500	.899

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2013.

...it becomes worrisome.

This injury has little to do with his on-field production and shouldn't prohibit the Orioles from calling him up later in the season if they choose to do so, but for now, Schoop will take a week off and rest his ailing back.

 

Braves' Graham Out with Shoulder Issue

The Atlanta Braves have put pitching prospect J.R. Graham on the disabled list with shoulder issue they are calling a strain but really have yet to identify, says Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

Graham left his last start after just two innings, but doctors were unable to identify what in his right shoulder was giving him issues.  Due to the ambiguity of his injury, there is no current timetable for his return.

It's logical to question how long Graham has been having issues with his shoulders, given his struggles over his last two starts.  Graham hadn't been dominant all year, but prior to his seventh start on the season in May 8th, he had a 3.41 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 29 innings.  In his two starts since then, however, he struck out just three batters in seven innings.  Obviously the sample size is ridiculously small, but a drop in strikeout rates can sometimes be due to a drop in velocity which could be due to discomfort in his shoulder.

Of course, it could also just be a coincidence.

Either way, Graham is out for the time being until the Braves can get a better grip on what is wrong with his arm.  Given that it's a shoulder issue, the Braves will likely handle him conservatively, especially until they can figure out exactly what is causing his discomfort.

Cole, Gausman Not Ready for Majors

We're getting to that time of the season where the anticipation of prospect call-ups begins to swell, especially for those moves we know are inevitable.  After all, the savior-in-waiting everyone knows is going to be the missing piece for said team is just too exciting to think about.

But for two of the games top pitching prospects, that time is not now.

Forget service time for a second, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman simply aren't ready for their time in the majors just yet.

Cole is closer than Gausman.  As Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com points out, Cole's time in Triple-A this season was thought to be more of a formality than anything with any actual substance.  It was thought to be nothing more than a place to stay loose while waiting for the Super 2 barrier of his service time to pass by, like a race car forced to idle in pit row for speeding through too quickly.

But a funny thing happened while Cole was idling in Indianapolis - he struggled.  It turns out, he had a few more things to learn before he came to save the day in Pittsburgh.

As Williams illustrates, Cole is struggling with his command in the International League and isn't missing bats the way he should with his stuff.  This isn't a new problem for Cole (although his high walk numbers this season are a new, and likely temporary, blip on the radar), but I pointed out almost a year ago while scouting Cole in his Double-A debut that he failed to dominate his competition the way he should with his ability.

Cole is having a strange season, with increased walk numbers, dramatically lowered strikeout numbers, yet an ERA of just 2.55 thanks to a fortunate BABIP of just .230 and a strand rate of 83.7 percent.  Neither of those last two numbers is sustainable, hence his 4.45 FIP, easily a career high.

The Pirates probably won't hesitate to call Cole up in a month or so, although if his struggles continue, the Pirates likely won't be forced, thanks to a number of additional starting pitching options in addition to their current rotation.

The Orioles, on the other hand, don't have that type of depth.  Thanks to injuries, their already relying on Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, a plan that doesn't seem likely to end well.  There was speculation that Gausman would be called up to take one of the open spots in the Orioles rotation, but Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun says that he's not being considered.

Which is probably the correct decision.  It's not that Gausman hasn't pitched well, but he still has just 12 professional starts to his name after just two seasons at LSU.

Like Cole, however, it's not incorrect to believe that Gausman could be in the majors at some point this season, although Cole should beat him by a few months.  Gausman could help the Orioles down the stretch if the organization stretches his innings out properly over the course of the year and isn't forced to shut him down early.  Bu September, he could be one of the only healthy Orioles pitchers left, in addition to being one of the most talented.

But for now, Gausman won't be heading to the majors, seemingly no matter how desperate the pitching situation gets in Baltimore.