MLB Prospect Watch

BA Prospect Hot Sheet - 6/1/12

Baseball America released their weekly hot sheet yesterday, with a familiar name sitting atop of it for the first time.  Here are this week's winners:

• Jesus Aguilar (CLE)
• Tyler Austin (NYY)
• Clayton Blackburn (SF)
• Cody Buckel (TEX)
• Orlando Calixte (KC)
• Andrew Chafin (ARI)
• Kaleb Cowart (LAA)
• Keury de la Cruz (BOS)
• Travis d'Arnaud (TOR)
• Adam Duvall (SF)
• Jose Fernandez (MIA)
• Wilmer Flores (NYM)
• Alen Hanson (PIT)
• Miles Head (OAK)
• Juan Jaime (ATL)
• Tyler Matzek (COL)
• Mike Olt (TEX)
• Chris Parmelee (MIN)
• Kyle Skipworth (MIA)
• Trevor Story (COL)
• Allen Webster (LAD)
• Zack Wheeler (NYM)

This week's not-hot list includes A's OF Grant Green, Brewers P Taylor Jungmann, Diamondbacks P Archie Bradley, and Cardinals P Tyrell Jenkins.

As we near the mid-point of the season, our standings are beginning to take shape.  We update our standings on the sidebar on the right-hand side of the page each week to form a Player of the Year-type ranking for the entire minor leagues.  We assign 15 points for coming in first on the list each week, 14 points for second, and so on.  The "In the Team Photo" players get two points, while the Helium Watch and Man Among Boys get a point apiece each week.  The Not So Hot list loses one point.

It's not the most scientific way to rank players, but it does provide a good snapshot for which prospects are having the best seasons.  Plus, it's fun.

 

Prospect Action 6/1/12

Triple-A

• Nick Addition dropped to 1-6 on the season despite giving up just one hit in seven innings, thanks to five walks by the Cardinals prospect, notes Andrew Pentis of MiLB.com.
• White Sox outfielder Jordan Danks extended his hitting streak to 14 games with a 3-for-5 game, says The Charlotte Observer.
• Blue Jays outfielder Moises Sierra hit three home runs off as many pitchers as part of a huge offensive day, writes Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.

Double-A

• Ethan Martin continued his bounce-back year, as the Dodgers former first-rounder improved to 6-1 with seven shutout innings, writes San Dykstra of MiLB.com.
• Diamondbacks lefty Tyler Skaggs threw eight strong innings on Friday, allowing just two runs on six hits, notes Robert Emrich of MiLB.com.
• Mike Olt blasted two more home runs Friday night, giving the Rangers third base prospect 13 bombs on the season, notes Emrich.

High-A

• In his first start off the DL since hurting his groin, Zach Lee threw three scoreless innings, allowing just one hit, writes David Heck of MiLB.com.
• It was a rough day ot be a pitching prospect in High-A ball, as Phillies prospect Adam Morgan (box), Marlins prospect Rob Rasmussen (box), Giants prospect Jack Snodgrass (box), and Diamondbacks prospect Andrew Chafin (box)  all took losses.

Low-A

• Angels prospect Kaleb Cowart continued his red-hot hitting, collecting two more hits on Friday and five more RBI's, says Pentis.
• Nick Tropeano struck out nine batters over 5 1/3 innings, reports the Lexington Herald-Ledger, as the Astros pitching prospect continues to make his case for a mid-season promotion.

 

Potent Potables - Hultzen, Hechavarria, Holmberg

• Danny Hultzen had more things to work on when he began the season in Double-A than the Mariners initially may have expected, but Jason Churchill of ProspectInsider.com says that Hultzen has corrected many of those issues and is ready for Triple-A.  In his last four starts, Hultzen is 3-0 and has allowed just two runs.  Earlier in the year, he battled his control, but in his last four starts, he has walked just eight batters in 26 innings.
• Blue Jays fans calling the promotion of Adeiny Hechavarria will have to wait, as he is dealing with issues surrounding his visa and can't currently travel to Canada, says BlueBirdBanter.com, a problem more so because he's with a Canadian team than it would be otherwise.  Regardless, he won't be able to come to the majors until the issue gets resolved.
• It's easy to get overlooked as a pitcher in the Diamondbacks farm system, but Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reminds us not to look past lefty David Holmberg, who the team traded for while he was still in rookie ball.

 

Prospects Breaking Out in 2012

Jimmy Graham breaks down some prospects breaking out in 2012.

 All these prospects where not well known commodities before 2012, but due to their excellent play they are now being recognized at top prospects.

Cody Buckel P Texas

The rich get richer, as the already loaded Texas Rangers system has another power arm.  Drafted in the 2^nd round of 2010, many teams where scared off by Buckel’s lack of height (6’ even) so he fell to the Rangers.  With a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and excellent secondary offerings, Buckel has become one of the Rangers bigger prospects with his eye-popping start to 2012.  Playing in the Carolina League, Buckel is 4-2 with a 1.19 ERA in 10 starts.  In those 10 starts, he has been dominant, allowing only three runs once and two runs one other time, while holding teams to one run or less in his other eight starts.  The other-worldly numbers that Buckel possesses include whiffing 73 batters in just 60 1/3 innings.  He definitely has the stuff to miss bats, holding opponents to a .167 average against.  Buckel should soon earn a promotion to the Double-A Texas League where he will face much better competition, allowing us to get a better grasp on his ceiling.  Some scouts think he could fare as well as a number two starter, while others see him as a back of the rotation guy.  Either way, the 19-year-old has the talent, and what looks like the makeup, to be a great pitcher.

Brent Keys OF Miami

Talk about coming from nowhere.  Keys, a former 17^th round selection in the 2009 draft, has burst onto the scene showing five tools.  After a limited 2009 and 2010 where he only saw short season ball, Keys struggled to stay healthy in 2011 appearing in just 43 games.  Before 2012 Keys was not thought of to be much of a prospect, but after hitting the cover off the ball for the months of April and May, he is getting some much deserved attention.  Already playing in more games than he did in 2011, Keys is hitting .376 with 4 homers and 24 RBIs.  He is showing plus speed on the base paths, swiping 12 bases out of 15 attempts.  Keys’ amazing statistic is his BB/K ratio at almost 2-to-1, with 27 walks and just 14 strikeouts leading to an OBP of .458.  The 21-year-old has shown enough with the glove for many scouts to think he can stay in center field, while others still feel he projects as a corner outfielder.  Look for Keys to get a promotion to High-A soon to help make up for the time he’s missed in his past.

Yordano Ventura P Kansas City

Another Carolina League pitcher, Ventura, like Buckel, has been missing bats at a tremendous rate.  In 49.1 innings, Ventura has struck out 61 batters.  A small guy with a big arm, the 5’11” Ventura features a plus-fastball paired with developing secondary pitches.  Throughout his professional career Ventura has produced at every level, making scouts look past his slight stature.  Since in 2010, he has averaged more than a strikeout per inning.  Of his 17 earned runs allowed this year, five of them have come on the long ball and while he has held opponents down to a .225 average, his record of 2-4 doesn’t reflect how well he’s pitched. 

Adam Morgan P Philadelphia

A 3^rd round selection in the 2011 draft out of college, Morgan had shown flashes of dominance but also struggled at Alabama.  Morgan features a fastball that ranges from 88-92 with a plus-slider that sits around 84, and a changeup that is also an average major league pitch.  What Morgan needs to do to be successful is pound the strike zone and in 2012 he has done just that, striking out 70 batters in just 59 innings without a power fastball.  For the year he is 2-4 with a 3.36 ERA.  Another surprising new prospect, Morgan could end the season in Double-A with an ETA of 2013-14 if he continues to develop.

 

 

 

 

 

Jimmy Graham is an avid prospect-follower who has been writing about prospects on the web for two years, and is proud to be from America's hometown of Plymouth, Massachusetts.

Grandal Called Up to San Diego

The San Diego Padres have promoted catching prospect Yasmani Grandal to the majors, reports Bill Center of The San Diego Union Tribune.  The team has not yet announced a corresponding move, including whether or not they plan to carry three catchers or move John Baker.

Center seems to think the team will carry three catchers, which is the most likely option, but makes the timing of Grandal's promotion strange.  Grandal was having a great season, hitting .317/.421/.500 at the time of his promotion, but with just 163 career at-bats in Triple-A, the 23-year-old was hardly wasting away in the minors.

The team could desperately use more production at the catcher position, and Grandal will certainly provide an upgrade over Baker or Nick Hundley, but if he's not going to play full time, it seems detrimental to bring him up now and let him sit when he can continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Grandal came to the Padres this off-season in the Mat Latos deal, and joins Yonder Alonso and Edinson Volquez as former members of the Reds now on the Padres roster.  Brad Boxberger, the fourth player acquired in the deal, has a 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances ot of the Tucson (Padres Triple-A) bullpen.

 

Blogs Track Teams - 5/31/12

• Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com recaps the Reds results, including a ho-hum 3-for-6 day for Billy Hamilton, that included three runs scored and two more stolen bases.
• Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com provides us with the Pirates production, including three more hits for the suddenly hot-hitting Tony Sanchez in support of the suddenly back-on-the-prospect-radar Tim Alderson.
• PineTarPress.com runs through the Royals results, including a homerun by Brett Eibner.
• TalkingChop.com breaks down the Braves farm system, including a complete game outing by Sean Gilmartin.
• Miles Head drove in two runs and Max Stassi had two hits in support of a strong outing by Ian Krol, notes AthleticsFarm.com, who has all of yesterday's A's action.
• Nolan Arenado blasted a home run on Thursday, notes Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, who writes up all of the Rockies prospect action.
• Shelby Miller continues to turn in disappointing performances at Triple-A as he got hit hard again, notes FutureRedBirds.net, who catches us up with the entire Cardinals organization.
• BrewCrewBall.com bundles the Brewers system for us, including a solid start by Kyle Heckathorn.
• Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune provides us with the Padres prospect performances, including a three-hit day for Cory Spangenberg.
• Josh Norris of Minor Matters has all of the Yankees prospect action, including two more doubles for Tyler Austin.

 

Prospect Action - 5/31/12

Triple-A

• Mike Montgomery has struggled this season, but his latest start on Thrusday showed us why the Royals consider him to be such a big part of their future, notes Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com, as the lefty threw no-hit baseball into the sixth inning before getting tagged for a solo homer by Cubs prospect Brett Jackson.  Wil Myers also homered in the game in support of Montgomery.
• Tom Koehler threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings, picking up his sixth win of the season, says Alex Cassara of The New Orleans Times-Picayune.  Koehler has now turned in a quality start in six of his last seven starts.
• Mariners 3B prospect Vinny Catricala hit a home run off of Diamondbacks prospect Pat Corbin, reports Mike Curto of The [Tacoma] News Tribune.  After a hot spring, Catricala has struggled in Triple-A this season, batting just .223 and now with just three home runs on the season.

Double-A

• Bryce Brentz went 5-for-5 with three doubles on Thursday, says Andrew Pentis of MilB.com, as the Red Sox prospect brought his batting average above the .300 mark to .306.  Brentz continues to hit, still stikes out too much and continues to display no control over the strike zone.  Much like his first-half last season when he batted .359 in Low-A ball, Brentz is once again benefiting from an unsustainable BABIP that's sitting over .400.
• Yankees OF prospect Cody Johnson hit his 14th home run of the season, which leads the Eastern League, notes The Erie Times-News.  Johnson continues to strike out, with 61 whiffs in 45 games, 
• Zack Wheeler threw seven innings, allowing just one run and striking out eight, reports Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.  The Mets prospect improved to 5-2 on the season and lowered his ERA to 1.88.

High-A

• Brandon Workman continues to go deep into games (by minor league standards), throwing six innings for the second straight start, according to Danny Wild of MiLB.com, this time allowing just two hits and fanning six.
• Bobby Borchering and Chris Owings both homered in support of David Holmberg, who struck out 10 batters in seven strong innings, but it wasn't enough of a cushion for their bullpen, who blew his lead and ultimately the game.

Low-A

• Not known for his speed, Tigers first base prospect Aaron Westlake ripped a game-tying triple on Thursday, notes MLive.com.
• Jose Fernandez continued his dominance of the South Atlantic League, as the Marlins prospect struck out eight batters in six more scoreless innings, writes David Heck of MiLB.com.
• Gary Sanchez continues to make his case for a promotion, blasting two more home runs on Thursday, adds Heck.

 

The Marlins Options for Matt Dominguez

In March of 2011, Matt Dominguez headed to Jupiter, Florida with a legitimate chance to make the then Florida Marlins major league roster as the team's Opening Day third baseman.  The team didn't have a great internal option at the hot corner, wasn't expected to be terribly competitive, and Dominguez's defensive reputation at third base was enough to make up for the questions surrounding his bat.

That March didn't go as planned for Dominguez.  Even though the offensive expectations for him were pretty low, he hit poorly enough to lose the battle to a Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms platoon.  To make matters worse, about a week later in a Triple-A pre-season game, Dominguez was hit in the elbow by a pitch, causing him to miss the entire month of April.

The unfortunate two-month stretch did little to dinge Dominguez's status as a prospect, which, while not among the game's elite minor leaguers, still has him pegged as a major league regular.  Upon return from injury, he hit .258/.312/.431 in his first taste of Triple-A, which, while not extraordinary, was on par with his career norms.

At his best, Dominguez is projected to hit between .250-.270, between 15-20 home runs and play gold glove-caliber defense at third base.  The problem now for the Marlins, is that third base is occupied until at least 2014.

The now Miami Marlins kicked off an active off-season by signing free agent shortstop Jose Reyes, moving incumbent shortstop Hanley Ramirez to third base, and as a tertiary result, effectively ending Dominguez's career as the Marlins everyday third baseman before it ever started.

Back in Triple-A again, the now 22-year-old (and still perfectly young for his level) Dominguez has gotten off to a slow start thanks to a a little poor luck on balls in play (.233 BABIP), hitting just .225/.276/.357 thus far.  Two months of poor offense, however, still hasn't done much to diminsh the fact that Dominguez still has a future in the major leagues.

It just likely won't be in Miami.

The Marlins have a number of options with Dominguez.  They are, by no means, at the point where they need to move him.  At just 22, Dominguez could still develop further as a hitter, and while he'll likely never hit enough for his bat to carry him, it clearly doesn't have to.  Some added offensive potential, however, could take him from major league regular to borderline all-star, so even if that possibility is slight, it might behoove the Marlins to keep Dominguez in Triple-A for a while longer just in case.

Another possibility revolves around the fact that the Marlins will likely be in contention for a playoff spot this season, and currently have a third baseman who is still learning the position.  Dominguez could be a nice fit on this team in August and September as a defensive replacement for Ramirez in late innings.

The does have some holes on the major league roster, however, the biggest of which is in their bullpen, and Dominguez could be a nice option for them to make a trade without jeopardizing their future.

Let's face it - teams that are considering the Marlins as a trade deadline partner are going to ask first about Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich, but unless the return is something substantial, the Marlins shouldn't part with either one of those former first-rounders.  Dominguez, however, could be a nice fit for teams when they explore their next option.

The Oakland A's, for instance, could have a few relievers that pique the Marlins interest come July.  Grant Balfour and early season feel-good story Ryan Cook could make nice additions to the Marlins bullpen, and the team doesn't currently have long-term solution at third base.  They would likely have interest in Dominguez.

The Minnesota Twins could also be a fit.  I know fans in the Twin Cities seem to be enamored with Danny Valencia, but his .494 OPS isn't quite cutting it for me, and it will still be a few years before Miguel Sano is anywhere near Target Field, if he's even still playing third base by that time.  Catcher/first baseman Ryan Doumit could be a nice fit for the Marlins bench and uncertain situation at first base, so there could be a potential fit there as well.

And this is the situation as we begin the month of June.  By the trade deadline, there could be more teams on the "seller" side of the equation, giving the Marlins more options.

If they choose to make a move.  They have a number of options with Dominguez, and it will likely come down to what they are offered in return for him.  The Marlins are in the envious position of not having their hand forced.  They do not need to move Dominguez, and could even see him contribute in the majors this year in a specific role.  But if they choose to upgrade their major league roster, they have a perfect trade piece that can help another team immediately without altering their future plans.

 

Twins Organizational Depth: Help from the Farm for Big League Problems

This week, Matt Fazio will give an overview of the Minnesota Twins.

The Minnesota Twins abysmal start raises questions as to where the problem lies. The 18-32 Twins have the worst record in the American League at the end of May. Though the Twins finished in last place in the Central in 2011 (63-99), the team was plagued with injuries to their key stars: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The Twins made the playoffs back-to-back years in ’09 and ’10 and many thought that with a healthy lineup, they would at least compete in the Central this season.

Offensive talent such as Mauer and Morneau, and even newcomers like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit are producing, yet the Twins continue to struggle. Though the bats could do more, the pitching has been the Twins fundamental problem for the 2012 season. The Twins currently have the worst ERA in all of baseball with a 5.25. The four starters on the team with more than five starts all have an ERA of at least 5.46. Francisco Liriano (7.20), Jason Marquis (8.47), Nick Blackburn (8.37), and Carl Pavano (5.46) are a combine 6-17. And to add to that atrocity, Anthony Swarak (5.75) and Liam Hendriks (9.00) give the team's six starters a total record of 6-23. On top of their starting pitching, the majority of their bullpen has struggled as well. Their closer Matt Capps is 0-3 with a 3.79 ERA. Alex Burnett is the only relief pitcher to have logged over 10 innings with an ERA under 3.00.

It is because of this dire need for pitching that I will discuss some of the options through the farm system of the Twins. Despite being a winning organization, they are not often known for big signings in the offseason. If the Twins want to be competitive it will have to start with pitching; and more than likely that will have to come from internal options.

According to MLB.com’s Top-20 rankings for the team, only three of the Twins top ten prospects are pitchers. The most alarming part about that is one of their top three pitchers, Hendriks, has already made it to the show and to this point has not been successful. In his eight career starts at the big league level, Hendriks is 0-4 with a 7.40 era. Moreover, he only has 25 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. A 5.4 SO/9 rate is disconcerting after his lowest SO/9 in the minors was 7.2.

While Hendriks was in the top 10, Kyle Gibson was ranked as the Twins’ top pitching prospect (although he did not make MLB Top 100 Prospects). Gibson had a break out year in 2010 posting a 2.96 ERA and an 11-6 record playing in A+, AA, and AAA. Punching out 126 batters in 152.0 innings. Like Hendriks, Gibson’s SO/9 numbers continued to go down as he made his way to higher levels. This is common among young pitchers.  Though his strong showing in 2010 was promising, Gibson had a wretched season in 2011. A 4.81 ERA accompanied with a 3-8 record in only 18 starts. His season was cut short due to arm trouble and Tommy John Surgery. To date, Gibson has not pitched a game yet in 2012 as he is still recovering.

Like Gibson, Adrian Salcedo is also on the disabled list. Though it seems Salcedo’s injury is not long-term, the 21-year-old is 0-1 in 7 starts with a 5.64 ERA this season. Though he is still young, most believe that his talent level is best suited as a back-end of the rotation type of starter rather than a true impact pitcher at the top of the rotation.

Outside of the top three pitching prospects for the Twins, AAA starter Scott Diamond has already made an impact with the big league club. Though Diamond only has five starts for the Twins, he has posted a 2.27 ERA and a 3-1 record. Also, a 21:4 strikeout to walk rate helps to get him off on the right foot. Diamond’s strong start could go a long way for a staff with such issues as the Twins.

One player on the rise that is not known as a top tier prospect is B.J. Hermsen. Drafted in the 6^th round of the 2008 draft, Hermsen is 22 and has made substantial progress in the minors. The 6'5" righty posted a 3.33 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 151.1 innings in 2011 in A- and A+. His 13-8 record in 25 starts also shows that even at a young age, he can go deep into games. His solid year in ’11 along with a stellar 0.78 ERA in his first 4 outings in A+ in 2012 earned Hermsen the promotion to AA. Hermsen’s 2.68 ERA in his first 6 starts is promising, but the fact that he is averaging over 7 innings per outing shows maturity and likely the ability to skip levels quickly. A 23:2 strikeout to walk ratio also shows his command.

And although this may not help the Twins’ immediate future, they have some promising talent down in Fort Myers their A+ affiliation. The Miracles have Pat Dean, 22, showing promise. Though he was playing in Double-A in 2011, his marginal numbers had him beginning ’12 in Fort Myers. Already having logged 63.1 innings, Dean has a 4-2 record with a 2.70 ERA. Perhaps his demotion will be used as a wakeup call to get him back into the mix for a long-term solution to Minnesota’s pitching problems.

After giving an overview of the Minnesota Twins’ obvious weakness and their options through the farm system, I think it is safe to say that help is not on the way. Hopefully Diamond can continue his early success and establish himself as a fixture in the Minnesota rotation, but for the time being, it would seem that veterans like Pavano and Liriano need to step-up and get back to their winning ways if they want to give this team any shot at a redeeming season. I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Twins end up passing on an established bat in the draft next week and decide to go with another arm instead. 

 

Injury Update - Venditte, Mummey

• Pat Venditte has a big decision to make regarding his future.  The Yankees switch-pitcher reportedly has a torn labrum in his right shoulder, according to The Scranton Times-Tribune, which makes for a tough decision, given that he still has another healthy arm to pitch with.  For most pitchers, season-ending surgery would be the only option, but since Venditte is a switch-pitcher, he has the option to keep pitching with just his healthy left arm and hope that rest is enough of a remedy for his right arm.  The problem, however, is that the general opinion on Venditte is that he's not a good enough pitcher from either side to get by without constantly having the platoon advantage against hitters.  
• Trent Mummey is back on the DL, his second trip there this season, says Tucker Blair of Orioles-Nation.com.  Mummey spent most of last year on the on the DL as well with symptoms related to a concussion.  During his brief time the field last year, the Orioles 4th round pick from the 2010 draft has hit .292/.373/.478 between Low and High-A ball, but this season, back in High-A Frederick, Mummey struggled, hitting just .244/.337/.344.