In a farm system that is as top-heavy as any in baseball, the Orioles entered the season with three significant prospects, and very little else. Top prospect Dylan Bundy has missed the entire season after having a PRP injection in his elbow in an attempt to avoid Tommy John surgery, and Kevin Gausman appears to be putting his prospect days in his rear-view mirror.
Now Jonathan Schoop, the Orioles only potential impact position prospect anywhere near the majors, will be out for 6-8 weeks with a stress fracture in his back, reports Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun. Schoop was placed on the disabled list a week ago while the Orioles attempted to assess the injury.
The setback for Schoop makes it unlikely that he will be able to contribute in the majors this season, although it doesn't rule it out completely. Schoop's injury didn't appear to be affecting his play, as his numbers this season in Triple-A are similar to what he has done throughout his career. I've discussed Schoop's struggles hitting right-handed pitching before, and the biggest impact of this injury is that he'll miss two months worth of at-bats in which to work on solving his issues versus righties.
Assuming he has no setbacks during his recovery, he could return to the field in late-July and could still be ready for a September call-up to help the Orioles off their bench down the stretch.
The Minnesota Twins need a starting pitcher for Friday, and among the possible candidates to be called up is top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson, says Phil Miller of The Minnesota Star-Tribune. The other candidates, Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters, aren't exactly a part of the Twins future the way that Gibson is thought to be, but then again, the Twins future isn't coming this year. They also need a second starter to take the recently demoted Vance Worley's spot in the rotation, after their Opening Day starter was sent to Triple-A following his outing on Wednesday.
Which begs the question, is this the time to call up Gibson?
There may not be a correct answer to the question, but there are certainly pros and cons to the decision. I took a look at how the Twins might monitor his workload this season during the off-season, with Stephen Strasburg and Kris Medlen as potential blueprints from last season. I thought the Twins would do a better job of spacing his innings out over the course of the season so they wouldn't have to shut him down the way the Nationals did with Strasburg, but they won't be faced with the dilemma the Nationals were last season come playoff time, so in the end, it doesn't really make much difference if the Twins need to shut Gibson down in August. We can assume that they want some of his workload this season to come in the majors, so whether or not that happens now or later, and how much of it, doesn't make much difference in terms of wear and tear on his arm.
There should be a big difference, however, in terms of his service clock if the Twins call him up now. The window has passed where the Twins have to worry about losing control of Gibson early, but there could be a financial difference if they call him up now rather than waiting a few more weeks and passing the Super-2 barrier. That would make him eligible for arbitration in 2016 instead of 2017 for the first time, meaning he's likely to cost around $2-3 million more for the 2016 season than if the Twins wait another month.
2016 is far enough down the road that the Twins can consider being competitive, with Joe Mauer still around, a potential outfield of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Byron Buxton (about to be crowned the game's next top overall prospect), and a potential pitching staff of Gibson, Alex Meyer, Trevor May and Jose Berrios. That's the potential for a competitive team that is also getting more expensive by the year, and for the Twins, who have never been a high-payroll team and don't expect to be in the future, $2 million could make a impactful difference on the makeup of their roster.
It's a small thing, but it could make a difference. What won't make a difference is calling Kyle Gibson up to the majors now.
Gibson has been inconsistent this season from start to start. Here are his game logs from this season:
Gibson has alternated starts in which he allowed either one or no runs with starts in which he allowed significantly more in a strange pattern that holds no bearing other than to show that Gibson hasn't been consistent enough to be good for two games in a row yet this season. Even a good start every other time out, however, would be an improvement for the Twins.
But for what purpose? The Twins need help, but their season is heading nowhere and Gibson isn't going to change that. Even if the financial difference is minor and is three years in the future, what's the benefit of bringing Gibson up now - to help win as many as two more games this season?
In the long-term scheme of the Twins rebuilding project, it's just not worth it. Let Gibson stay in the minors for another month and see if he can gain some consistency. He'll be in the majors soon enough, but a few extra starts in a lost season are not worth service time or salary consequences of any kind, no matter how minor.
Which is what scares me about this move. Having not had a chance to see Gausman in person this season, I can't tell you first hand whether or not he's ready to face major league hitters. I can only go off of what others say, and that can be dangerous. For instance, Jason Churchill of ESPN.com tweeted that scouts he talked to earlier this season didn't think Gausman was ready. On the other hand, J.D. Sussman of FanGraphs.com recently posted a scouting report calling for the Orioles to make exactly this move. And I know J.D. and respect his opinion.
But the Orioles' change of heart begs the question - what was their thinking and why did their mind change?
A win on Tuesday evening ended a six game skid for the Orioles, and with vacancies in their rotation, Gausman is probably their best option. With a 3.11 ERA and a 2.44 FIP in Double-A this season, Gausman has left little doubt that he's ready for a step up, and with his exceptional control (just under one walk per nine innings), he's at a low risk to self-combust if asked to make a jump to the majors. Additionally, he's the top prospect in an otherwise barren farm system.
But all of that was true a week ago. Was the Orioles recent losing streak really enough to change their mind?
If the issue a week ago was financially-related - in that they intended to hold him back past the Super-2 deadline but after six straight losses decided that it was worth the extra money they'll spend with that extra arbitration year to help right the ship now - then I'm ok with the decision. A change in financial strategy can be dictated by wins and losses on the field.
But if the Orioles internal evaluation was that Gausman wasn't quite ready for the majors, yet after a week of losses the Orioles decided that, ready or not, he was still their best option, then I'm not as sold. The Orioles are competing this season, and Gausman at even 75 percent of his potential may be their best option, but rushing their only healthy impact prospect in a panic mode could cost them. If Gausman is close, but not quite there, then a handful of additional minor league starts (perhaps at the Triple-A level) could be all he needs to be a truly impact pitcher down the stretch, a la Matt Harvey after his promotion last season. Calling him up before he's completely ready could leave them with an average pitcher for four months instead of an above-average one for two-and-a-half.
But again, I don't know the Orioles thinking. I hope that they felt he was ready all along and were trying to hold him back for financial reasons instead of rushing him to the majors in a panic move. If that's the case, they I applaud them for being willing to take on extra salary down the road to make a run at things now. But if this is because they're out of decent pitching options, then it concerns me, whether Gausman is ready or not, that the Orioles changed their developmental philosophy on their top prospect based on a bad week of results at the major league level.
Gausman should be able to hold his own either way because of his exceptional control and power arsenal, but we have to hope that by calling him up now instead of in a month or two, the Orioles aren't costing themselves a chance at getting an exceptional finished product for a stretch run.
Jonathan Singleton, the Astros top prospect who has missed the first 50 games of the season due to suspension, is set to return at the end of the month, but he won't immediately begin at Double-A Corpus Christi where he finished last season or Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he would have began the season if not suspended, says Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Instead, Singleton will begin his 2013 campaign in Low-A Quad Cities.
The Astros want to ease Singleton back into competitive baseball without throwing him into a level he's yet to reach, and that's a sound strategy, but it could have secondary benefit for the Astros. With their 2013 season going nowhere, the slower they move Singleton along, the easier it will be to hold him off from the majors until they are closer to competition. Had he been eligible to begin the season on time, he would likely be pushing his way towards a late-season call-up. Thanks to his inability to stop smoking weed, the Astros can justify bringing him along slowly this season and leave him in Triple-A for the remainder of the season.
I discussed the character issues surrounding his inability to stop smoking after his first failed test (it takes two failed tests to get suspended), but in the long run, as long as Singleton can stay out of trouble, his suspension could actually work out in the Astros favor, in terms of timing his assent to the majors with their own organizational development.
Almora to Kane County
Cubs fans have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of Albert Almora to a league where they can put some stock in the results, but their wait is finally over. The 2012 first-rounder has missed the beginning of the 2013 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, but his time in extended spring training is over and he's heading to Low-A Kane County, says The Cub Reporter.
Almora has shown glimpses of the ability that got him selected sixth overall last season, but his time in the Midwest League will be the first chance to show how his tools will translate against an advanced level of competition.
Stroman Has Successful Return
Marcus Stroman made his 2013 debut on Sunday with five innings of scoreless baseball, during which he struck out six, notes Evan Peaslee of MLB.com. Stroman has been suspended for the first 50 games of the season for failing a drug test for a performance-enhancing substance, which is a different violation than Singleton's, despite the same penalty.
It's worth noting that the Blue Jays plan to keep the 5-foot-9 Stroman as a starter for the time being, which makes sense in an attempt to maximize his ceiling. Just because he's short doesn't mean he can't be a starter, despite the accepted convention within baseball, and at the very least, using him as one in the minors will give him more developmental experience even if he ends up as a reliever down the road.
With reigning Cy Young winner David Price on the disabled list, the Tampa Bay Rays have promoted right-hander Jake Odorizzi to take his place in the rotation, reports Bill Chastain of MLB.com. Odorizzi will take Price's turn in the rotation today.
Odorizzi, acquired by the Rays in the off-season in the James Shields trade with the Royals, is perhaps the most heralded of the Rays impressive upper-minors pitching depth. He was considered the most major league-ready pitcher in the Royals system at the time of the trade and made two starts in the majors towards the end of last season. Odorizzi was 4-0 with a 3.83 ERA and a 4.21 FIP in eight Triple-A starts this season.
Odorizzi is not an over-powering pitcher, featuring a low-to-mid 90's fastball to go along with a curveball, slider and change-up. It's a basic repertoire, but he gets the most out of it and should have no problem establishing himself as a reliable big league starter, although he's not in the Price/Matt Moore/James Shields class of upper-rotation starters.
With Roberto Hernandez struggling, Odorizzi's time in the rotation while Price is out could serve as an audition to stick around upon the return of their ace. If not, Odorizzi, along with Alex Colome, Alex Torres, and Chris Archer, continue to provide the Rays with the best pitching depth in baseball.
The inevitable happened over the weekend. The Texas Rangers sustained an injury, this one to second baseman Ian Kinsler, and top prospect Jurickson Profar was called up to take his place.
But leave it up to Ron Washington to not use him.
Expectations need to be tempered for Profar, not because he's not talented or worthy of being the top prospect in the game, but because what Mike Trout and Bryce Harper did last season was historic, and should not be the new expectation for all top prospects. But despite that caveat, however, Profar should be a considerably better player than Leury Garcia, especially at the plate.
There is no telling how long Profar will be with the Rangers. Kinsler is on the 15-day DL and shouldn't have any issues returning in two weeks, meaning Profar's stint in the majors could have a two-week shelf life from its outset.
But why would Profar not play every day during those two weeks?
The Rangers justification for starting Profar in the minors this season was that they didn't want him to be in the majors unless he was going to play every day, and this was the correct philosophy to take. There was no sense in letting him rot on a major league bench when he could be playing every day in Triple-A. But the situation has changed, and there are at-bats for Profar for the next two weeks. How could he possibly lose any of them to Leury Garcia?
Garcia is a nice player, but he's a utility man at the major league level, which is why the Rangers had no problem keeping him in the majors without a place to play every day but did not want to do the same to Profar's development. No offense to Garcia, but he's not the same type of player as Profar, who is a cornerstone of their future. If Profar is going to be in the majors, he needs to play every day.
Johnny Hellweg earned his second win of the season thanks to six shutout innings despite walking six batters in the outing. It was the first time since his initial start of the season that the Brewers flame-thrower allowed zero runs and he's now walked 31 batters in 38 2/3 innings.
In his return to Triple-A, Martin Perez allowed four runs in five innings but struck out four to take a loss. The Rangers left-hander hasn't truly been effective at any level since a half-season stint in Double-A in 2011, yet because of his talented left arm, he continues to be a focal point of prospect followers.
Sonny Gray allowed just one run in his first six innings of work, but the A's right-hander failed to get out of the seventh inning and allowed four runs (three earned) when it was all said and done in the loss.
Michael Wacha tossed his Cardinals teammates on his back on Thursday and led them to a victory behind seven dominant innings of one-run baseball during which the 2012 first-rounder struck out eight and walked just one.
Double-A
The Marlins got a nice glimpse into their future on Thursday as Christian Yelich continued his hot hitting, going 3-for-4 with a double and a home run in support of left-hander Adam Conley, who has been inconsistent this season but allowed 3 runs (two earned) in five innings on this night.
Trevor May has generally been strong in his initial season in the Twins organization, but on Thursday he allowed more runs than innings pitched for the second time this season, allowing five runs and nine hits in four innings.
Schoop has spent the entire 2013 in Triple-A, hitting .268/.331/.368 on the season. I noted before the year that this was a make-or-break year for Schoop to prove that he could hit right-handed pitching more consistently, but even after a strong fall league and a solid World Baseball Classic, he still has yet to prove he can consistently hit same-handed pitching.
So far this season in a limited sample of games, Schoop has kept with his career trends:
The limited sample from this year wouldn't be enough to make the determination on it's own, but when pared with his totals from last year's dramatic splits...
This injury has little to do with his on-field production and shouldn't prohibit the Orioles from calling him up later in the season if they choose to do so, but for now, Schoop will take a week off and rest his ailing back.
Graham left his last start after just two innings, but doctors were unable to identify what in his right shoulder was giving him issues. Due to the ambiguity of his injury, there is no current timetable for his return.
It's logical to question how long Graham has been having issues with his shoulders, given his struggles over his last two starts. Graham hadn't been dominant all year, but prior to his seventh start on the season in May 8th, he had a 3.41 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 29 innings. In his two starts since then, however, he struck out just three batters in seven innings. Obviously the sample size is ridiculously small, but a drop in strikeout rates can sometimes be due to a drop in velocity which could be due to discomfort in his shoulder.
Of course, it could also just be a coincidence.
Either way, Graham is out for the time being until the Braves can get a better grip on what is wrong with his arm. Given that it's a shoulder issue, the Braves will likely handle him conservatively, especially until they can figure out exactly what is causing his discomfort.
We're getting to that time of the season where the anticipation of prospect call-ups begins to swell, especially for those moves we know are inevitable. After all, the savior-in-waiting everyone knows is going to be the missing piece for said team is just too exciting to think about.
But for two of the games top pitching prospects, that time is not now.
Forget service time for a second, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman simply aren't ready for their time in the majors just yet.
Cole is closer than Gausman. As Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com points out, Cole's time in Triple-A this season was thought to be more of a formality than anything with any actual substance. It was thought to be nothing more than a place to stay loose while waiting for the Super 2 barrier of his service time to pass by, like a race car forced to idle in pit row for speeding through too quickly.
But a funny thing happened while Cole was idling in Indianapolis - he struggled. It turns out, he had a few more things to learn before he came to save the day in Pittsburgh.
As Williams illustrates, Cole is struggling with his command in the International League and isn't missing bats the way he should with his stuff. This isn't a new problem for Cole (although his high walk numbers this season are a new, and likely temporary, blip on the radar), but I pointed out almost a year ago while scouting Cole in his Double-A debut that he failed to dominate his competition the way he should with his ability.
Cole is having a strange season, with increased walk numbers, dramatically lowered strikeout numbers, yet an ERA of just 2.55 thanks to a fortunate BABIP of just .230 and a strand rate of 83.7 percent. Neither of those last two numbers is sustainable, hence his 4.45 FIP, easily a career high.
The Pirates probably won't hesitate to call Cole up in a month or so, although if his struggles continue, the Pirates likely won't be forced, thanks to a number of additional starting pitching options in addition to their current rotation.
The Orioles, on the other hand, don't have that type of depth. Thanks to injuries, their already relying on Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, a plan that doesn't seem likely to end well. There was speculation that Gausman would be called up to take one of the open spots in the Orioles rotation, but Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun says that he's not being considered.
Which is probably the correct decision. It's not that Gausman hasn't pitched well, but he still has just 12 professional starts to his name after just two seasons at LSU.
Like Cole, however, it's not incorrect to believe that Gausman could be in the majors at some point this season, although Cole should beat him by a few months. Gausman could help the Orioles down the stretch if the organization stretches his innings out properly over the course of the year and isn't forced to shut him down early. Bu September, he could be one of the only healthy Orioles pitchers left, in addition to being one of the most talented.
But for now, Gausman won't be heading to the majors, seemingly no matter how desperate the pitching situation gets in Baltimore.
Bubba Starling has struggled with his first taste of full-season baseball in 2013, hitting just .213/.286/.384 for the Lexington Legends, showing off the tools that got him drafted fifth overall in 2011, but also giving cause for enough for enough concern to wonder whether he'll ever be able to put them to proper use on a baseball field.
But perhaps the problem is that he can't see the baseball.
Starling has told the Royals that he's having trouble seeing the baseball at night, and the team is having him checked out to see if it is something that LASIK surgery can fix, reports the Kansas City Star. If so, he will have the procedure done immediately and wouldn't miss much more than a few games.
The numbers support Starling's claims. The outfielder has hit .300/.391/.600 with three of his four home runs in just 10 day games, but has hit just .172/.234/.241 with one home run in 25 night games. We're dealing with small sample sizes here and certainly I'm not advocating laser eye surgery based on his strong play during the afternoon this spring, but the dramatic difference in his production during the day and at night certainly gives validity to his comments.
It's important to remember the human element to prospect development, which sometimes includes things like 20-year-old kids not realizing that they can't see properly because they haven't been to an eye doctor recently. It sounds foolish, but sometimes you don't realize what you can't see because you can't see it.
LASIK, of course, isn't magic surgery and won't instantly solve Starling's contact issues or make him a more patient hitter. He's always going to be aggressive at the plate and he'll come back from the eye doctor with the same holes and hitch in his swing that he has now. But the ability to recognize pitches and their spin earlier and more accurately could give him a chance to make enough contact to use his power more often and could help him get better jumps on balls in center field.
